The so called "surge" has been touted as the singular aspect of strategy that has literally changed the course of the Iraq war. Not really even as we acknowledge and are grateful for the decrease in violence. But, let us be realistic in what has happened. Plain and simple, a new doctrine of counterinsurgency has been initiated. And, this doctrine in the very beginning is "get the local populace on your side." And, I might add, in any way you can. However, here is the rub: the very idea that the Iraqis will have an acceptable measure of peace is as elusive as ever, even if temporarily, violence is down.
And, here is why. In the latest scenario, the Shiite led government will begin to man checkpoints and in general assume control over the Sunni fighters known as the Sons of Iraq (also called Awakening Councils). These are the guys that were killing Americans when the new strategy was initiated. We paid them to come over to our side. It worked, they quit shooting at us. However, the strategy now stands a good chance of coming unraveled. Lions may lay down with lambs in Biblical analogies but not in Iraq. The strategy can only continue to work if we stay in Iraq forever and back the Sons of Iraq. And, then it is only a "maybe." My view.
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